Week #16 of the NFL season is here. In the final couple weeks of the regular season, there’s likely to be a lot more traffic on the daily fantasy football sites, which means that if you want to have a good shot of winning money this weekend, you need a superior strategy for selecting your teams than what your competition is using. That’s why we stress value in this analysis. By looking at how to stretch your salary further without sacrificing fantasy points, our hope is that we can help you to put together the best team possible. So, take a look at our daily fantasy football breakdown as we examine a few of the top rated players going into the weekend.
Tom Brady: Brady is the number two ranked QB going into Sunday. His price tag of $6,900 makes him a bit more agreeable to most rosters than the number one ranked Wilson, and his average of 20.9 fantasy points per game is a pretty nice number this late in the season. Brady has 28 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions, making him one of the most consistently accurate quarterbacks in the league. He also has averaged 297.4 yards per game, putting him very close to that magic 300 yard threshold. In some fantasy settings, including DraftKings, having more than 300 yards of passing gives the QB a little point boost, and Brady’s numbers could be boosted nicely if he breaches this point. However, the Pats go against the Bills this weekend, who have the #6 best defense in the NFL when it comes to limiting the QB’s numbers. Brady is strong, but this is a questionable place to be. The Bills are hungry for a postseason spot, and they are likely to be in top form here.
Cam Newton: Newton is ranked third in the NFL at QB for Sunday. His salary of $6,800 makes him a touch cheaper than Brady, and his expected fantasy point output follows suit at 20.8 points, just 0.1 behind Brady. However, although Newton is similar to Brady in almost every respect from a statistical point of view going into this game, there is one thing that puts Newton ahead of Brady. While the Buffalo Bills have a strong defense at this point in the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not, which gives Newton a higher ceiling than Brady. You will save $100, but in the end you are going to have a higher point threshold to work with than if you had drafted Brady.
QB Start: Newton
QB Sit: Brady
Todd Gurley: Gurley has 17 TDs so far this season, which has helped to boost him to the number one rank as far as RBs go. He also is averaging 84 yards per game, which indicates that he is converting more rushing opportunities into points than other RBs are doing. His high TD number is reflected in the fact that he’s expensive at $9,100. Gurley has had a great season, but the Rams go against the tough defense of the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. They are ranked #5 against the rush, which is a strong indicator that Gurley will have a below average game on Sunday, limiting his value.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt’s price tag is a bit less than Gurley’s at $8,400, and his average fantasy point output reflects this. He is only averaging 20.3 points per game. However, Hunt has some clear advantages. For starters, Hunt and the Kansas City Chiefs are going up against the Miami Dolphins, who are ranked just #26 in the NFL against running backs. Hunt has TDs and is averaging about 85 yards per game, but we should see that these numbers land on the higher side of average this weekend. His ceiling is high, and even with a hefty price tag, we should expect more than normal as far as fantasy point production goes.
RB Start: Hunt
RB Sit: Gurley