This Sunday, May 8th, is UFC Fight Night, coming to us from the Netherlands. As you’re beginning to think about your daily fantasy MMA roster, take a look at our fantasy analysis of some of the big fights going on. We’ll get you pointed in the right direction so you can have a better chance of dominating your fantasy league.
Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski
According to most fantasy sites and books, the favorite for this fight is Overeem. DraftKings has him listed with a salary of $10,300, compared to Arlovski’s $9,100. Overeem has many more fights under his belt, and a better overall win-loss record, which gives him the experience edge. He does seem to have a bigger edge overall, too. He has 25 pounds on Arlovski, has a slightly long reach, and a much higher win by submission number. The only real advantage Arlovski has is that he’s won a higher percentage of fights by KO/TKO (48% compared to 68%). We like Arlovski, and we like the fact that he’s been averaging more fantasy points per fight, but Overeem is the better fighter, and in this matchup, we’re going with him.
Antonio Silva vs. Stefan Struve
Silva is a great fighter, but we’re not sure that he has the edge here. DraftKings has him priced at $9,500, with Struve a bit more expensive at $9,900. Silva has the name recognition, but Struve is the slight favorite. And that’s a good thing for fantasy fight fans. Because of this, Struve is a lot cheaper than he should be. He has a better win-loss record, is taller with a longer reach, and lands more quality strikes per minute with greater accuracy. A $400 differential is way too little for this superiority in the stat department, especially when Struve is averaging more fantasy points per fight with his 58.2 compared to Silva’s 35.4. We think that Struve is the easy pick here. The only downfall is that other fights might see higher point totals.
Albert Tumenov vs. Gunnar Nelson
Tumenov is one of the more expensive fighters of the card, with a salary of $10,500. Nelson’s $8,900 is hardly anything compared to this, but maybe there’s a good reason for that. Tumenov is averaging 80.2 fantasy points per fight, which is really good, while Nelso is only putting up 71.8. This fight seems like the winner is going to be the one to go with as far as maximizing your points goes, and the favorite is clearly Tumenov here. Their stats look pretty equal, but Tumenov has a slightly longer reach, and has won by KO/TKO far more often. Nelson wins a lot of fights by submission, but because Tumenov tends to win earlier in his fights, Nelson is missing out on points. Also, Tumenov lands far more significant strikes per minutes. Matchup wise, they are similar, but Tumenov will perform better in a fantasy setting and is the correct choice if you decide to use this fight. In our opinion, there are fights that will be better thanks to the fact that both of these fighters are very talented and Tumenov’s typical high scoring potential is likely to be lower than normal because of this.
Nikita Krylov vs. Francimar Barroso
We like Krylov a lot for this fight. He has a better reach, with both arms and legs, and he has a slightly better win-loss record. DraftKings has him priced at $10,100, which is almost a steal to us. Barroso is a decent fighter, but he looks outclassed here. His salary of $9,300 is probably a bit too high, so stay away from him. Krylov’s 80.1 fantasy points per fight is really good incentive to draft him, especially compared to Barroso’s 43.3. This fight seems like a discount on really good talent, and it could be the focal point of a lot of fantasy rosters out there. Don’t miss this opportunity to find great value.