Week Four of the NFL season is already upon us. If you haven’t started putting together your daily fantasy football team yet for the weekend, let us help you get started. Here, we look at two of the top ranked players at a couple different positions, and then tell you which one is the better pick. Hopefully, looking at this from a value perspective will help you to put together the strongest DFS team that you’ve ever fielded. At the very least, it should help point the rest of your roster in the right direction. Good luck!
Tom Brady: Brady’s season is off to a strong start. He is the number one pick at QB this week in most fantasy leagues, and he’s been assigned a salary of $8,000 by DraftKings. He has far more fantasy points averaged per game this season than anyone else, averaging 28.1 per game. His cost per fantasy point rate stands at $284.70, making him a high value pick. The issue that Brady will run into is that the Carolina Panthers have posted strong defensive numbers this year, and have really limited QB performances. But Brady already has 8 TDs and has over 1,000 yards after three games. Even if he is limited this game, he will still be performing at a higher level than most other quarterbacks this weekend.
Matt Ryan: Ryan is the number two overall pick at quarterback for Sunday’s slate of games. His DraftKings salary is $7,400, making him $600 cheaper than Brady. Ryan is averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game this season, with a much higher rate away than at home. This is something that’s likely to change over the course of the season, and since this is a home game coming up, Ryan is likely to perform much higher than his worst game of the season. The bigger hindrance to Ryan is the fact that his offense is going against the number four ranked Buffalo Bills defense. Ryan has an expected value of $422.86 per point, which is a very expensive rate for a QB, especially in light of some others out there. If he was going against another team, he might be a good deal, but not in this scenario.
QB Start: Brady
QB Sit: Ryan
Odell Beckham, Jr.: Beckham is the number two ranked WR this weekend, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game. He has a salary of $8,900, which makes him a bit pricey, but you will be rewarded for that premium. His on-paper dollar per point number stands at $486.34, which seems like a bum deal, but we need to look a bit deeper at him before jumping to that conclusion. The deciding factor for Beckham is the fact that the Tampa Bay Bucs have the 32nd best defense against the receiving game in the whole NFL. Even if Beckham doesn’t look like a good pick on paper (which he does), this is a matchup that favors him above anyone else. He could be a few hundred dollars more expensive and still be worthwhile.
A.J. Green: Green is a bit cheaper than Beckham at $8,600, and you’re only sacrificing a tiny bit in prospective fantasy points for him. He had contributed 18.1 points per game. The Bengals take on the number ten ranked passing defense in the Cleveland Browns this week, which might hurt Green a bit more than he has been so far this season. For example, the Houston Texans are ranked at 22 in the NFL, where Green had just 11.7 fantasy points. He’s definitely a stronger pick than Beckham on paper, costing $475.14 per point, but thanks to the stronger defense, Green actually has a lower ceiling than Beckham, making the more expensive player actually the stronger value pick in this instance. If the match ups were different this week, Green would be the better choice. But that’s not the case here.
WR Start: Beckham
WR Sit: Green