Daily fantasy football fans: this will be the last weekend for DFS football leagues! It’s also going to be one of the most competitive weekends of the football season. This is for two main reasons: one, the football season is getting more viewers because we are so close to the Super Bowl, and two, there are fewer choices for your roster, thus leading to more fantasy managers choosing the same high quality players. Our goal for this weekend is to help you select the very best roster that you can. Our analysis below will get you there.
Best Quarterbacks to Start
Tom Brady: At first glance, Brady is your top choice. But we believe he is too expensive for the amount of risk he entails. He’s averaged 295.5 yards per game, which is very impressive, but because the Patriots are going against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Brady is likely to underperform when looking at that number. 280 yards are more realistic. The Steelers have the #4 defense in the NFL when it comes to preventing QB fantasy points, and as great as Brady is, this is going to impact his ability to produce here.
Aaron Rodgers: Which brings us to Aaron Rodgers. Yes, he’s probably the most expensive QB in your league. In many leagues, he’s $1,000 more than Brady. But his stats speak for themselves. He is scoring more fantasy points on average than Brady, and is putting up 285.9 yards per game. But because the Atlanta Falcons defense is ranked #31 against QB fantasy points, he’s actually in a situation where 300+ yards is far more likely. Also, Rodgers has shown that he can produce TDs better than anyone so far this year. We think he’s worth the inflated price tag.
Wide Receiver to Consider
Antonio Brown: When it comes to receivers, Brown is head and shoulders above the rest, both in terms of natural ability and in fantasy point production. However, Brown is extremely expensive as a result of this. In many cases, this would be completely okay with us for you to go ahead and still draft him. In this case, we are saying pass on him. The Patriots defense has not been kind to WRs in terms of allowing fantasy points this season, and they are ranked #4 in the NFL in giving up points. Brown has overcome all sorts of adversity this year, but he’s not poised to have an above average, or even an average, game here.
Julio Jones: Jones is currently listed as questionable for the weekend, but Falcons management expects him to play. If he does, he is your top choice. Not only is he a lot cheaper than Brown, but the Green Bay Packers have the #32 ranked defense in terms of WR fantasy points given up this season. Jones has averaged 98.4 yards per game and has 7 TDs on the season. We expect his numbers to be well above these marks.
Running Backs are Strong
Le’Veon Bell: Most people in your DFS circles will be revolving their entire lineup around Bell. You shouldn’t. Bell is twice as good as most RBs out there, and now that there are fewer to choose from, he easily stands out as the top choice. But he’s also extremely pricey, and the New England defense is very strong against rushing. Bell is going to be limited in his use, and although he will put up good numbers, they will not be the numbers that most people expect from him. His average of 114.6 yards per game is amazing, but if he cracks 85 here, we will be surprised.
Ty Montgomery: Montgomery is likely to be more than $4,000 cheaper than Bell in your league, and we expect similar results from him this week. The Atlanta defense is ranked #28 against the rush, putting Montgomery in a spot where he will be relied upon even more heavily than normal. His average of 31.2 yards per game doesn’t compare to Bell’s numbers, but in this situation, he’s going to need to step up to a prominent role on the team, and we expect Rodgers to use Montgomery more than usual, and thus this average will be something that is well below what we’ll actually see from him. We even see a TD or two in his future.
