This weekend has some interesting team matchups as we draw close to the end of the regular NFL season. Here’s a quick breakdown of a couple of the top games for the weekend from a daily fantasy sports perspective. Like always, we feel that looking at what the experts in Las Vegas believe will happen is a good starting point statistically. Hopefully, this detail will be just what you need to win your league this weekend. Because daily fantasy football is so reliant on statistics, and Vegas has some of the best statistical analysis for NFL games, we find that this is a good way to help gain a small advantage over the competition in these weekend and single day leagues.
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons are 1 point favorites for this game, but that seems a bit misleading considering the talent that’s on the team. The question is whether or not that talent will show up for this game. QB Matt Ryan has had a rollercoaster season, playing really well one week, and really poorly another. The same is true of WR Julio Jones. Ryan’s QB Rating for the season is currently just 88.6, and there are only a handful of quarterbacks with more interceptions than him. Julio Jones does lead the NFL in receiving yards right now, though, making him a decent roster pick. However, because of Ryan’s trouble this season, his touchdown number is far lower than it could be. He has only 6 touchdowns this season when it should be much higher. That means Jones will do better in a league that pays a bonus if he has more than 100 yards rushing than if the league doesn’t. The problem with Jones, though, is that he will be expensive and his point potential will be low because of Ryan’s inability to throw touchdowns. It gives an extra degree of strength to the Tampa Bay defense, and this position should be cheap to begin with. It will not be a huge savings in salary, but if you need to make adjustments for a couple hundred salary dollars here and there, this is a possibility. And with Ryan’s high interception rate, there’s another reason to go with Tampa Bay here. The plus side to this is that the over/under is 46 points, which means that this could be a higher scoring game than expected. Take this into account as well if you do plan on using the Bucs as your defensive unit.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are 9.5 point favorites. This in itself is enough to have you look at the game right away, but you should also consider Bengals players because QB Andy Dalton has the third best QB Rating in the NFL right now, behind only Tom Brady and Carson Palmer. Dalton has a solid team backing him with A.J. Green at WR and Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill at RB. Hill is probably the better fantasy choice this weekend as he will be cheaper and there’s not a huge difference in expected performance outcomes. Add to this the fact that the Bengals beat the Browns a few weeks ago by a margin of 31-10. The Browns should be avoided for fantasy use this weekend as a result of this. If you are looking for a good tight end, you can use Tyler Eifert. He’s third on the team in receiving yards, and Dalton has been relying upon him pretty heavily this season. The only downside to this game is that the over/under seems pretty high at 44 points. Last time they played, a total of 41 points were scored, and the Bengals had the home field advantage which implies that they should have been the ones to score more. This week, since the game’s in Cleveland, the Bengals are likely to score 2 or 3 fewer points, which could impact Bengals’ players fantasy value.
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