We have regular tournaments on both main Tours this week with Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth favourites to win the Irish Open and Byron Nelson respectively. Both players are back home with Rory competing in Northern Ireland and Jordan in Texas. However, home field advantage may not be enough to overcome not having the ideal profile for the challenge of this week’s host courses. Other players are preferred on the basis of having games more suited to the layouts being used this week than the two best players in the world. The added expectations of playing in front of a home crowd and commitments off the course will also count against McIlroy and Spieth.
Irish Open at Royal County Down
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The course has hosted three Irish Opens but not since 1939 and only been used for major amateur events in the modern era including the Walker Cup of 2007 in which McIlroy last played competitively before joining the paid ranks. There are five blind tee shots on the course so course experience and a decent caddie are important factors. The narrow fairways are bordered by heather and gorse and deep bunkering adds to the challenge. The greens are fast and dome shaped so finding the right portions will be important to prevent the ball running off the surfaces and potentially into a bunker. County Down is a demanding links test which will be played in stiff breezes. It has the quality to stage the British Open but not the space for huge grandstands and transport links so is unlikely to be selected.
Selection: David Howell
Howell has now got his career back on track after some years disrupted by injury and loss of form. He now works part-time for a UK based sports channel as a golf pundit but is spending more time on the course over the weekends. Before failing to qualify for the last two rounds of the PGA Championship he has made his last five cuts on the European Tour. He has been in contention in most of those weeks and looks like a winner about to happen. He is a top 15 player for putts per round and a good week on the greens can compensate for no more than average accuracy stats.
Selection: Rickie Fowler
Fowler looks a certain future major champion, more so now after beating the strongest field of the year at the Players Championship, the unofficial fifth major. He played in the Walker Cup in 2007 at Royal County Down and scored three points from four matches. Fowler finished in the top five of all four majors last season with his best effort a second place in the British Open at Royal Liverpool. That was his third top 15th finish in the Open and the player seems to enjoy bad weather. He has the temperament and technique to maintain his form and that will be a big plus this week at a breezy Royal County Down.
Selection: Chris Wood
Wood finished fourth last week in the PGA Championship, the flagship event of the European Tour that attracts the best field for a British tournament other than the Open. There were some notable absentees from Europe’s winning Ryder Cup team but still a strong field with plenty of depth. Wood is proven on links courses as he has twice finished in the top five in the Open. He also has the game to handle a course buffeted by wind and has some event form, finishing third in the 2010 Irish Open but on a different course. The selection has made his last five cuts and is a top 50 player for driving accuracy and putts per round.
Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons
The course is a tree-lined, par 70 track with two reachable par 5s. It places a premium on accuracy from tee to green but this is balanced by large, undulating greens which yield plenty of birdies. An accurate long game is usually the key to a high finish in this event. Brendon Todd who defends this week broke the mould somewhat by finishing only 55th last year for finding the greens in the correct number of shots. However, he was first for scrambling and stokes gained putting and led the field in fairways hit. Even so the identikit of a potential winner this week is an accurate player who putts well. Todd excelled on the par 3s and par 4s but was only average on the two par 5s confirming the view that long hitting will not be at a massive advantage.
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Selection: Jason Day
Day has been identified as a future major champion and he has twice been in contention on Sunday afternoon at Augusta. The US Open may be the major most suited to his game as that event more than any other requires accuracy from the tee to avoid rough that is often penal. Day would probably swap ten Byron Nelsons for his first major but won’t turn down a chance to win for the fourth time on the PGA tour. He won his first title here in 2010 and was in the top ten for the next two years. He is currently joint leader on the Tour for par-3 and par-4 scoring.
Selection: Marc Leishman
Despite such a solid record Day does not even have the best course form for a player from Australia never mind anyone in the field from all over the world. Marc Leishman has recorded five top-12 finishes in six appearances at TPC Four Seasons and that includes two top threes in the last three years. He combines excellent course form with solid current form despite not being in the top 50 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Putting is also not a major strength so he must have an eye for the layout at this week’s host course and can contend again.
Selection: Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson has returned after a sabbatical from the game this year and immediately found a high level of form and won the WGC Cadillac Championship in March. Johnson favors courses that put a premium on distance over accuracy but rain in the area has in effect lengthened the course and DJ can take advantage. In his last four visits to Four Seasons the world number ten has not finished outside the top 20 and the rain that has fallen this week will increase the likelihood of an even better outcome. Johnson was joint sixth in the Texas Open in March despite some bad luck with his tee-times so is proven in the conditions he will encounter this week.
