Content Update – Currently there is no Daily Fantasy on College Sports. – June 2018
College basketball is a widely bet upon sport come March Madness and the Final Four, but there is still plenty of action earlier in the season, and daily fantasy leagues give you a great chance to experience this fun, especially if you follow the players closely.
During the regular season, college basketball is unlike any other sport because of the fact that there is more potential for uneven matchups, and this can easily distort a player’s worth, making him much more or much less valuable than what the fantasy site that you are playing on might tell you.
For example, at FanDuel, Terry Rozier of Louisville is priced at $9,000. He’s not the most expensive guard out there, but he’s in the top 5. Over the course of this season, he’s averaged 31.5 fantasy points per game, but the past means little to us if it isn’t indicative of the future. On Saturday, Louisville plays N.C. State, and this is what needs to be the focus for this particular game. If it’s likely that he will score more than 31.5 points, then he is a great buy at $9,000. What he’s capable of should be evaluated in direct relation to his price. As you know, this is called value, and it can help you to stretch your salary cap spending power out a little further each time you draft a team, and over the long run, it will give you a huge advantage.
N.C. State has a 14-11 record right now, compared to Louisville’s 20-4. Louisville is clearly the stronger team, and in comparison to many of Louisville’s other games this season, N.C. State looks like they are slightly below average. N.C. State is ranked 10th in the Atlantic Coast, and have struggled throughout the season against stronger teams. They have had a weak schedule this year, and they still have a poor record in comparison. It is not likely that they will play well against Louisville, but then again, this isn’t the actual point we should be focusing on. We should be paying attention to zones and matchups to evaluate whether Rozier’s performance will be likely to be better or worse than predicted.
First, know that Rozier’s fantasy point per game production has been going up. He’s averaged 18.5 points per game this season, and 19.5 points per game over the last month. Against a weak team, this number should be beaten. He has 5.7 rebounds per game, 2.5 assists, and 2 steals. These latter numbers count much more than actual points, but if all go up, he should be producing higher fantasy numbers in this game than he has been projected to at 31.5.
The other thing to consider a bit further is the odds of playing time. Whether or not he will play a full 40 minutes is debateable as no coach would want to injure someone with star potential this close to the postseason, especially on a team like Louisville that’s ranked in the top 10 in the nation right now. Even if he sits for a bit, though, his numbers should be higher than expected, and because he’s a guard and not a forward, he will likely not need to be pulled quite as early, which gives you an advantage with going with him over a forward in the same situation.
