Super Bowl 53 DFS Picks are In
The Super Bowl is finally here! With the Los Angeles Rams and that New England Patriots set as the two contenders, this is your last chance to get in on fantasy football action for the season. The big game promises to be an exciting one. And whether you’re a Pats fan or a Rams fan, this game will be a great one, regardless of the outcome. This game also gives us one final time to play daily fantasy football for the season. DraftKings has rolled out some innovative features for daily fantasy football recently, and thanks to recent changes in federal law regarding sports betting and fantasy sports, they are taking full advantage of things for the Super Bowl. It looks to be a promising new style of competition for fantasy players. However, because it is a newer style of play, there are going to be some slight differences from the style of play that you might be used to. That’s why we’ve put together this guide for you. Looking at concepts like value and expected matchup outcomes, our goal is to give you an edge over the competition, regardless of how unfamiliar you are with DraftKings newest features.
Play the Captain During the Super Bowl
You have some big choices to make for the Super Bowl. It’s up to you to put in the right piece.
Captain Takes the Lead
The Captain is a new feature. The player that you choose to fill this role will cost 50 percent more than they normally would, but their fantasy point total will also be increased by 50 percent. It is worthwhile to draft a strong player here, but not one who is so expensive that you have no spending power for the rest of your lineup. Choosing the right Captain will make or break your lineup. Potential Captains should include Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, and Tom Brady. Although Julian Edelman is the most expensive player at DraftKings for the big game, he has the lowest fantasy point average per game of any of the top four ranked players. He will be a big contributor in this game, but because of the lower immediate value that he carries, spending extra on him will not be as fruitful. He has averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game this season. With the 50 percent boost, we can expect 27.6 fantasy points from him. Now, if you take into account the extra salary that you will spend on a Captain you will get a price of $587 per point. Brady, using the same method of calculation, has a price of $546 per point. Goff stands at $478 and Gurley stands at $341. That narrows your choices down considerably, but we still need to take into account the fact that New England has been pretty brutal against the rush this season. They are ranked at #8 in the NFL, which means that Los Angeles will need to rely on the passing game more than the rush. It also means that Gurley will likely see a big decrease in production, and that his low price per point number is way too low to match reality. We should expect to see a below average game from him this game. In fact, it’s probably a good idea to avoid drafting him altogether, both as Captain or in other places on your roster. Because of this, drafting Goff or Brady is your best choice. Goff is cheaper and has a higher expected value. Because he will be forced to throw more than normal, we should expect his numbers to be slightly better than they are on paper, giving him the advantage for your Captain position. Captain Start: Goff
Flex is a Big Part of Course
The rest of your positions will be Flex players, meaning that you can draft anyone that you would like to once you draft your Captain. And thanks to this new setup, you can choose another QB if you so desire. Brady could be a good addition to your team, but it will make it very hard to fill the entire roster simply because drafting Goff as your Captain leaves you with only $7,000 per remaining player. Drafting Brady as well will drive that average price down to $6,100, and you still have four more roster spots to fill. Rob Gronkowski is another player you will definitely want to consider. Although Gronk has faced some injuries since his Super Bowl heroics of a couple years ago, he still remains a favorite target of Brady. He also has proven to bring his best playing when it matter most, and the Super Bowl is the biggest game there is. He’s averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game this season, along with 52.4 yards per game and 3 TDs. Gronk might not be the top player he once was, but he’s likely to see more action than normal. With a price tag of just $6,000, he’s almost a steal in this fantasy setting. Finally, don’t overlook Robert Woods. Woods is the top WR on the Rams, and if Goff is going to be throwing the ball more than normal, that means Woods will see more targets than normal. He’s already averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game, has 73.4 yards per game and 7 TDs. He struggled in his last game against the New Orleans Saints, but was still able to turn 6 catches into 33 yards. This is an indicator that Goff is willing to go to him even when the defense is tough. If Woods breaks out of his minor funk, this could be a dominant game for him.
Don’t Forget the Kicker!
Drafting a kicker is one way to boost your expected fantasy performance without spending a lot of money. Gostkowski is priced at $3,200 and has averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game. However, even though he’s slightly more expensive at $3,400, the Rams’ kicker—Zuerlein—has averaged 12.2 points per game this season. That gives him a nice edge and a nice discount to round out your roster without sacrificing quality. Drafting him and Brady evens out the cost on your roster. If you have Goff, Brady, and Zuerlein as your first three picks, your average cost per remaining player will stand at $7,000—exactly what it was before you drafted Brady and Zuerlein.