Drafting rookies for your daily fantasy football team is always a risky move during the first few weeks of the season, but rookies can and often do perform very well from a fantasy perspective. If you completely ignore rookies, you are likely to leave fantasy points on the table, and you’re likely missing out on good value in your roster, too. That begs a very important question: how do you know when it’s correct to draft a rookie early in the season?
The first place to look is at the NFL Draft. This is an easy place to start because the top ranked draft picks are top ranked for a reason. They were drafted early because they have potential to help their team. And because they were drafted early, there’s a far better chance that they will see more playing time than those that were drafted in the latter rounds. So, players like Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Ezekiel Elliott deserve special attention right off the bat simply because they were three of the top four draft picks this year. If you want to delve a bit deeper into this aspect of things, many sites out there rank the new class of players in order to help you figure out which players are most likely to succeed and which will contribute the least.
Next, look at whether or not they have the potential to help their team. They are new, and in the first few games, the quarterback will be testing them out to see where they fit in on the team. Ezekiel Elliott will be especially useful here as he is the only one of the three listed above that is not a QB. Elliott is a running back, and depending on what the Dallas situation is with their QB, Elliott might see a lot of action in the game. He is a high profile player right now so he makes a good example, but this is a concept that can be applied to any offensive player. Depending on what their anticipated status is on the team as Week One unfolds, you can get a good idea of how they will be used. Paying attention to preseason games and what coaches say about those games and their athletes will also be helpful before the kickoff on Week One, so pay attention here, too.
The next step is to look at matchups. If a new QB is given the starting slot, for example, and they are going up against a really weak defensive team, there’s a chance that they could have much better than expected numbers, creating a high value situation where that new QB is going to be very cheap from a salary perspective compared to their ceiling when it comes to fantasy point outputs. And because the quarterback slot is a place where it is often okay to take a small risk, this could be a good move in certain situations. The reverse is also true. Looking at the Dallas Cowboys again, they play the New York Giants in Week One. If the Giants end up going into the regular season having a far better defense than what’s expected, Elliott’s running game is likely to be impacted negatively and he could go into Week One being too expensive and should be avoided. Pay attention to matchups. They can both help and hurt you, and you don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of this. Use the matchup to your advantage and draft one or two players that could surprise.
You need to take risks to win large tournaments, but if you take too many risks, you will always lose. Rookies with no NFL experience provide one of the best examples of a risk when it comes to daily fantasy football strategy, so being educated on whether or not the risk has the potential to come through or not is the best way to walk this line and come out on the best side of it and win some money.
