This weekend, there are four playoff games, making it so there are eight teams worth of players to choose from. This puts a big limit on the number of choices you will have available. It can be stifling for some fantasy players, and a great opportunity for others. Here’s a quick rundown of my decision making process, complete with examples.
First, I look at the prices of the players. The players are priced how they are for a reason, and past performances are weighed heavily. For a position like Running Back, the top five picks on DraftKings are Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murphy, Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, and Giovani Bernard. Bell seems like an easy choice here, but it was recently decided that he would not play against the Ravens. Murray has the better overall stats, though, and at a slightly cheaper price, he might seem like the most obvious choice. Forsett would also be a good choice here, although he has fewer touchdowns this season than Hill does. Forsett has more yards, and over a big enough sample size, this would equate to more touchdowns.
So, how should you distinguish between these three players? Price is important here, actually, and you need to make sure that the price lines up well with the amount that they will contribute. At DraftKings, RBs are at a premium because you typically only get two per contest, while you get three receivers. Receivers will naturally score you more points overall, but this only means that you will find you get more points per player as a running back, which means you can safely spend a few extra bucks on them. However, you do not want to overpay. Murray is well above the others in this scenario with his price. He is at $8,800 while Hill and Forsett are $6,200 and $6,100, respectively.
Here’s the catch. You should be able to safely spend $8,800 on a RB–but that doesn’t mean you should. The top QB–Andrew Luck–is only priced at $8,800. That happens to be the same price as Murray. QBs tend to score more points than running backs, and this drives up the value of Luck, and drives down the value you will get from your RBs. Value is important, but it still isn’t the most important thing. Point production is.
Because you get two running backs, you can afford a star like Murray and someone of lesser quality. However, Murray is not likely to score a lot of points this weekend. He is playing against the Lions, who are ranked quite high and have DeAndre Levy, the player with the most tackles this season. In fact, they have the best rushing defense in the NFL. That makes his price tag seem way too high, and makes Forsett and Hill much more attractive. Because they are so cheap comparatively, it is easy to pick up both of these players at the same time.
This, of course, is just one example for one position. Looking at your team with this type of holistic approach will give you better results because it takes into consideration multiple factors and weighs them. Basically, when you think about your team like this, you are looking at who the best players are, whether or not their price tags are realistic for how much they will contribute, and then looks at their opposition to see whether their predicted performance is realistic.
