Week #10 goes into full swing this weekend for the NFL. It’s hard to believe that the last half of the season is well underway. And as tough to imagine as that might be, the increased number of statistics that we’ve had so far this year is something that we can use to help us make better decisions when drafting our daily fantasy football teams. We like to compare what the expert odds makers in Vegas have to say to daily fantasy worth just to give us a better projection of what is likely to happen in a given game here, and hopefully the combination of these two concepts will help you draft your best team yet this year.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
The Packers went from being one of the two best teams in the NFL to losing two games in a row. This week, that should turn around as the Lions come to visit them. Even with two losses, Aaron Rodgers is undisputedly a great quarterback. He has thrown 19 touchdowns so far this season, and against a weak Detroit team he is likely to throw a couple more. The Packers definitely have a better throwing game than a running one, and with Vegas giving them an 11 point spread, it’s pretty clear that those points are more likely to come from passes than from rushing yards. This automatically gives Rodgers a big fantasy edge. And by default, his receivers are likely to have better than normal games, too. That means WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb should have better than normal stats.
For the Lions, it’s best to stay away from QB Matthew Stafford. The Packers have a great defense when it comes to points allowed at just 20.4 per game. In many leagues, this is how QBs get the bulk of their points—throwing TDs. However, that doesn’t mean you should stay away from their receivers or backs, necessarily. When it comes to yards allowed per game, the Packers are surprisingly weak. They are giving up 257.0 yards per game throwing, putting them in the bottom third of the NFL. For rushing, they are even worse. They’re giving up 125.1 yards per game; the fifth worst in the NFL. The obvious fantasy strategy here would be to draft the best rushing player on Detroit. They are pretty light in this category, and that opens up the door for a really cheap price. RB Ameer Abdullah is only putting up 28.1 yards per game, but his coaches have already commented this week that he is to have a growing role on the team, and this is a perfect opportunity to see that happen.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had a big win last week against the Dallas Cowboys. However, now consider the fact that the Cowboys’ star QB, Tony Romo, didn’t play, and the Cowboys only lost by 6 points. There are plenty of opportunities for the Dolphins to take advantage of this weakness of Philly’s and steal a win here. The bookmakers have the Eagles listed as 6 point favorites, but given the way that the Dolphins played a few weeks ago, plus the weakness that Philadelphia has shown repeatedly this year, this is the Dolphins chance to steal some fantasy worth. QB Ryan Tannehill is the first place you should look. He is averaging 279.6 passing yards per game—a great number by any measure. Only a handful of QBs are doing better than him right now. Also, look to top WR Jarvis Landry. This is a good chance for him to improve his stats. Do remember that the Philly defense is only giving up 20.5 points per game this season, though, when weighing these decisions.
For Philadelphia’s offense, it’s tough to make decisions. QB Sam Bradford keeps showing flashes of brilliance, and then bombing the week after. He has talent, but is far too risky to go with. You may want to consider some of his top rushers, like RBs Ryan Mathews or DeMarco Murray. Both have potential for big games.
