This weekend, NASCAR action comes to the Texas Motor Speedway for the Duck Commander 500. We’ve ranked our top five picks for the weekend here, starting with our favorite draft pick, and working our way down.
Kyle Busch: According to DraftKings, Busch is the number three choice going into this race. By our standards, he’s number one. His salary of $10,100 is pretty low, considering that he has the second lowest finishing place of all entrants with an average place of 7.3. He has the second highest average fantasy point contribution, too, with 67.5. Busch won last weekend, and there’s a decent chance that he can keep this momentum moving forward. He’s a great value, and a definite top ten finisher. He’s also our “must draft” pick of the race.
Joey Logano: Logano is the number four ranked racer for the weekend, but when it comes to average finishing position, he’s the top choice, with an average place of 7.1. He’s cheaper than Busch at $10,000, which is a nice thing, but his average fantasy points are a bit low at 48.4. Still, he’s finished in the top ten in 5 of his 8 races this year, and one of those was last weekend, where he finished 11th. Logano lends a bit of security to your roster; even if he doesn’t finish in the top ten, he’s not likely to finish worse than 15th. We’re willing to pay for that peace of mind.
Kevin Harvick: We like Harvick a lot. He’s the number one choice at DraftKings with a salary of $10,500, and he’s the number one fantasy point contributor with 73.2 per race. The only reason he’s at number three on our list is because he’s so expensive. His average finishing position of 8.3 is nice, but there’s two better racers than him, and they’re both cheaper. A lot of his extra fantasy points comes from his differentials, and that’s not something that’s predictable until we know his post position. Harvick is good, but at this price, we are not ranking him too highly.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is one of the top value picks here. He’s priced at $9,600, which we believe is far cheaper than what he deserves. He has 5 top ten finishes in his 8 races, with an average finishing spot of 11.9. He’s not a guaranteed top ten finisher, but we believe he’s top 12 material in this field, especially considering that he has a win under his belt and finished 5th last weekend. All of these things make him a very attractive draft choice. He’s only putting up 43.0 points per race, which is not to his benefit, but he’s on a hot streak right now, and that momentum should help him more than hurt him.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Earnhardt is priced at $9,800, making him the number five choice on DraftKings. He has finished in the top ten 4 out of 8 times, and has an average finishing position of 11.5. He also has a win to his credit. The downside of him is that he’s struggled to make the top ten a bit more than the other racers we’ve listed here. That is a strike against him, but when Earnhardt is on, he’s a win threat. He is on more often than not, and the beginning of this season is a bit of an anomaly for him. We like him here. He’s a bit more expensive than we’d like to spend on a riskier racer, but his fantasy point ceiling is high enough that it could be a huge benefit to include him.
Notable names not included: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin. These names were not included because they were too expensive in regards to their performances posted. They are good drivers, but based on how they are currently priced, we are passing on them for this weekend’s race.
