This weekend is the AAA 400 Drive for Autism at the Dover International Speedway. Before you draft your daily fantasy NASCAR team, check out our pre-race fantasy analysis so that you can better put together a winning roster.
Kyle Busch: Busch is our number one pick for this race. He’s the second most expensive driver in the field at $10,500, and for us, he’s worth a little more than that. He has 4 wins this season, including one last weekend, and he’s made the top ten 10 out of 13 races. His average fantasy points per race number is a little lower than it could be at 65.3, but this is mainly because of a race a few weeks ago where he had negative fantasy points. In his win last week, for example, he put up 81 points. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to do the same again.
Jimmie Johnson: Let’s get this out of the way upfront: we do not recommend drafting Johnson. He’s the most expensive driver on DraftKings, and he has been disappointing us week after week. His salary of $10,700 is way too much for us, especially if you take a look at his last two races. Two weeks ago, he scored 6 fantasy points. One week ago, he scored 28. His average for the season is currently 44.3, but he just hasn’t been helping out with enough consistency. He has 2 wins for the year, but he’s only made the top ten 6 out of 13 tries. If we’re going to draft someone, we want consistency. Although Johnson has a high ceiling, he isn’t consistent enough to draft. At $2,000 cheaper, we’d risk it, but that’s a huge amount of salary and until something changes, we’re going to pass.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick is probably our second favorite racer in the field, and he’s a little cheaper than our number one pick (Kyle Busch), so that gives him a bit of appeal. Before you draft him, though, know that he’s not quite no Busch’s level yet. He has one win, has made the top ten 10 out of 13 tries, and is averaging 71.8 fantasy points per race. Those are all great, but they’re a bit off of what we look for out of our number one pick. And because his salary is so high at $10,400, it’s not possible to pick Busch and Harvick and still have a strong team. His second place finish last week was convincing, but unfortunately, it inflated his salary too much. If you must choose one or the other, we recommend Kyle Busch.
Carl Edwards: Edwards is ranked 5th in this field, and has a salary of $9,900. He’s a mid-tier driver, and priced accordingly. He’s made the top ten 9 out of 13 races, and has 2 wins to his credit. His 59.7 fantasy points per race are a little low, but we like his average finishing position of 9.1. Edwards has a lot of potential, but our only concern with him is that there’s no hidden value in him. He’s priced almost perfectly, and that doesn’t give us any room for error with him.
Kurt Busch: The other Busch is building up momentum in his racing season. He finished 3rd last weekend, and he’s slowly been improving his fantasy statistics, too. His salary of $9,100 is pretty low when you take into consideration his recent successes, and that means that he’s a high value pick right now. His average finishing position is 8.8, he’s made the top ten 11 out of 13 tries, and he has an average fantasy point contribution of 45.8. In reality, Busch should be doing far better than this, but his differentials, although to his benefit, are not as big as they could be. He’s been getting good post spots, and even though he’s moving up in place, he’s not getting as many points as he could from this. If he gets a bad post slot for this race, he will be even more beneficial to your daily fantasy NASCAR roster than normal.
