A Look at Week Three 2018
Some Solid Options to Look At
Taking the chance on someone will be the answer when you win big. Pick common and no so common names.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has had a stellar start to his season. He has thrown 10 TDs for a total of 582 yards. That yard/TD number is a bit lower than we would expect, which probably means that Mahomes is going to start throwing fewer than 5 TDs per game, on average. But it might not be this week. The Chiefs go up against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, who have the #27 ranked defense against QBs in the NFL. Even though he has played mediocre defenses in the first two games, he has been able to post strong fantasy numbers. Going against a weak defense should see a noticeable increase in his point return. At with a salary of $7,000, Mahomes isn’t much of a risk to your roster. Although he has high expectations, even a below average game for him here will return a decent value for your dollar.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is also in a position where we should expect more out of him. He has thrown 6 TDs in 2 games with just 1 interception so far this season. He’s also recorded a total of 669 passing yards, putting him well above that 300 yard threshold, on average. Going up against the Buffalo Bills, we can expect Cousins to have another decent game. Yes, the Bills have a high ranked defense. A lot of that ranking comes from their performance last season, and we’ve already seen that they are not as strong against the pass or the rush as they should be on paper. That gives Cousins a nice window to thrive within. He’s also cheaper than Mahomes this week. At $6,800, he could be a good way to save salary and focus elsewhere.
QB Start: Cousins
QB Sit: Mahomes
Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the top ranked RB headed into Week #3 of the NFL season. He has scored 3 TDs and a total of 75 yards this season. 1 of his touchdowns has been a receiving one, which shows some nice versatility, but it also begs the question of whether Kamara is being used as well as he should be. Although he has a strong fantasy showing so far this season, it’s likely that he is overvalued here, especially at DraftKings where he is the top priced RB at $9,500. I recommend passing on him here and going with someone with a higher point ceiling.
Melvin Gordon: Gordon could be the best value pick this weekend, but only if he plays. At this early writing, he is still listed as Questionable. However, if he’s listed as active this weekend, he’s worth drafting. One, he has a salary of just $7,400, which makes him one of the cheaper top rated RBs. He’s averaged 30.6 fantasy points per game according to DraftKings, which places him at #2 in the NFL at his position. And that was with missing most of the 4th quarter last weekend. Gordon has 3 TDs and is averaging 46 yards per game rushing. He’s capable of great things this season, but he needs to be healthy in order for that to happen.
RB Start: Gordon (if healthy)
RB Sit: Kamara
Michael Thomas: Thomas is off to a fantastic start this season. With 3 TDs and an average of 134.5 yards per game, Thomas is on pace for an astounding season. It likely won’t last for too long, at least at this pace, though. Thomas has a great QB in Drew Brees, but his numbers are unsupportable, especially when he starts facing tougher defenses. Thomas and the Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons this weekend, and Thomas will see the toughest defense against the pass that he has yet this season. With a salary of $8,900, we’re likely to see a dramatic falling off of his 37-fantasy point per game average. However, Thomas is still likely to have a strong return just because he is so talented and he does have a top ranked QB backing him up. If you’re looking for 35 or more fantasy points from your WR this weekend, Thomas is probably not the guy that you want to go with, though.
Julio Jones: Looking at the Falcons, I see my top choice at WR this weekend sitting quietly at a much lower than expected fantasy point average for this time of the season. Jones has averaged just 21.2 points per game this season, which is a reflection of the tougher competition that the Falcons have faced. Still, he has averaged 116.5 yards per game—but hasn’t yet recorded a TD. That’s okay. The football season is more than 2 games long, and Jones is a consistent threat. And the fact that the Saints do have a weaker defense against the pass will be something that helps Jones out a lot here. In fact, the Saints have the second worst passing defense in the NFL. Jones is a thousand bucks cheaper than Thomas for this game at $7,900, making him an extremely high value pick in this situation.
WR Start: Jones
WR Sit: Thomas