One method that we use to help us evaluate games for their daily fantasy sports potential is to look at what Vegas has to say about a particular game. By looking at things like the spread and the over/under, we can get a very good idea of how a game is expected to play out. And then from there we can make a more educated opinion on which players, if any, we should use from that team to help round out our teams.
With that said, let’s look at Week #7 of the NFL season. There are a couple games that have more fantasy potential than others, and if we are able to choose the players that are expected to perform the best in these situations, we might be able to find a slight edge for our own daily fantasy football rosters.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
I don’t know if anyone else has seen the expected results of this game, but this has a lot of potential behind it. The over/under is predicted to be 45 points, and Miami is a 5 point favorite. Granted, 45 points is not a ton of points, but it does mean that the Dolphins are expected to score 25 points this game. And given the fact that the Dolphins’ offense is only scoring 20.6 points per game so far this season, those points need to come from somewhere. The most likely source is the Miami defense. It creates an interesting source of points for your fantasy team, but the defense here could be pretty good. On the flip side, the Texans have a couple decent players you can use, namely wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He currently leads the NFL in receiving yards and has 5 touchdowns. A WR doesn’t need to score a ton to have good fantasy value, and the combination of these two slots could be pretty lucrative.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
This game has the highest over/under of any NFL game this weekend at 52.5 points. And with the Colts being 4.5 point favorites, it’s pretty clear that the experts believe that Andrew Luck is finally ready to have a good game this weekend. The problem is that Luck has been out with an injury and that before this, he had shown no indication that he was ready to play at the next level. Also, with Saints QB Drew Brees finally having a good game last weekend against the Falcons, the Saints seem poised to break out of their slump. Saints RB Mark Ingram has put up some good numbers and could continue to do so this weekend. But, do not discount some of the Colts players. WR T.Y. Hilton is a decent second or third tier receiver, and if you can get him at a good price, he may be poised to have a great game if Andrew Luck is actually as healthy as experts believe him to be.
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
The over/under for this one is a respectable 47 points, and the Falcons are 6.5 point favorites. This makes sense as the Falcons have the third best offense in the NFL right now and the Titans are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to defense. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is having a great year, and even though they lost last weekend to the New Orleans Saints, he is still putting up good numbers. Having WR Julio Jones and RB Devonta Freeman, two of the top ranked players at their position, hasn’t been hurting the Falcons, either. All three of these players are strong daily fantasy picks this weekend.
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