There are a lot of fantasy football fans wondering right now if Jameis Winston is worth all of the hype. Week #1 of the NFL’s regular season should give us a better idea of this, but for now, it seems safe to say that fantasy owners should stay away from him.
The big issue with Winston is not that he’s talented, but that he’s too inexperienced to know how to play his team correctly. The Bucs are a young team—which is good for them long term—but a young quarterback will thrive more readily under experienced players that know the NFL and the strategies and systems that work at producing plays. Winston doesn’t have this, and his team isn’t quite there yet, either. Tampa Bay does not have a top 10 ranked running back or wide receiver, and that could be very problematic at creating plays.
The one thing that Tampa Bay does have going for them is this particular matchup. The Titans struggled a lot last year, going just 2-14. That’s the same record that the Bucs had, but the Titans team seems to be even more inexperienced than the Bucs is. It has created an edge for Tampa Bay, but it’s a small one because it is such an unknown quality to deal with. Things are very unpredictable in situations like this, and in reality, it could go either way. When dealing with a fantasy situation, especially one where money is involved, this is just far too uncertain to be worth pursuing. The upside is not nearly as big as the downside as well, since a player like Winston has a much lower ceiling for potential than a player like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, or even Peyton Manning. There’s a ton of risk and very little reward, in other words. It’s not worth pursuing.
Winston is talented as an individual, but he isn’t on a team where he will ever be a top producer, at least until there are some personnel changes around him. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are too weak of a team—both offensively and defensively—to give Winston a setting where he can thrive. His matchup this weekend is a good starting point for him, though. The Bucs are taking on the Tennessee Titans, and the Titans are not as strong this year as they once were. Add in home field advantage, and Winston has an even more favorable situation for himself. QB Marcus Mariota did get the better of Winston the last time they faced each other, but that was college. This is a professional game, even if it is both of their NFL debuts. Also, Winston was a higher draft pick than Mariota, indicating a better skill set. He is likely to outperform Mariota statistically, and the Bucs do have a slight advantage according to the sports books at 3 points. A Tampa Bay win doesn’t mean that Winston will be a top performing QB, though. Until he’s shown us what he is truly capable of in the NFL, he’s a gamble at best on your season long or daily fantasy roster—even if he is a valuable asset for the Buccaneers.
Winston might be a good pick next year, but that isn’t something that you need to think about right now when selecting your team. The best case scenario for him is that he might be used in a pinch later in the season. Your best course of action with him is to put a little asterisk next to his name, file it away until it will be of use to you at a later date.
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