Taking advantage of some of the lesser played games in the daily fantasy leagues can be lucrative, especially because most people do not know how to properly draft teams for these because they are lesser played. This is a sound idea, but do be aware of the fact that because fewer people play them, many of the people that do know what they are doing. This means that to be profitable here, you need to be even more knowledgeable than your competition. These games include triple ups and multipliers.
Triple ups are a lot like double ups, but with a higher payout. Instead of doubling your money, you triple it. If you finish in the money, you will get a 200% return on your money, and usually this ends up being about the top 30% of entrants or so. It doesn’t matter if you finish first overall, or barely in the money, your payout is the same.
Multipliers range from 2 times your entry up to 10 times in some instances. These can be extremely profitable, or very hard to score in the money on. You need to make sure that if you enter one of these that you are paying attention to how many spots payout. If it seems easy to score in the paying section, then it could be worth it, but if only a few people will finish in the money, the high rewards might not be worth the risk. You might even find that these can be even more worthwhile for you, and that would make these tourneys a huge priority. A DraftKings tourney that has a 10x payout will give you $100 back on your $10 investment, but less than 10% of finishers will get that. At FanDuel, a 5x multiplier can have payout ranges of 18% or better, which is much better. So this is something to pay attention to, especially if a team performing at the same level would pay better in a general tournament.
Statistically, you need to finish in about the top 30% of all teams to finish in the money of a triple up league. This is much harder than a 50/50 league, where you need to beat 55% of the other teams, or so. However, the extra effort gives you double the profits, with less than double better results. You need to finish in the top 30% more than 1/3rd the times you play in order to make a slow and steady profit. But finishing in the top 30% is more difficult than the 33.4% of the times you need to finish in the money, which makes fandom chance your enemy. To make this a positive expected value for you, you need to be better than average so you can overcome the deficit. For the multipliers that make finishing in the money even tougher, your team needs to be even better.
Knowing the math behind all of this will help you to fine tune your approach and make sure that you are entering only the games where you stand a chance of creating a long term profit for yourself. Keeping track of your win rate, then, is more important than keeping track of how much money you are making. For example, knowing that you finish in the top 25% of your contests 40% of the time will be of more use to you than saying that you’ve made $1,000 in the past month. One is just an arbitrary number, and the other gives you insight into your ability. One lets you know that playing in a multiplier could be advantageous to you, and the other tells you nothing in regards to this.
Below, we’ve created a quick chart for you to look at that will let you know which contests will be best for you to enter depending upon your win rate. As a general rule, the 50/50s are easiest to place in the money off of, and the bigger GPPs are hardest.
Remember, these are rough averages based upon games at both FanDuel and DraftKings over a variety of stakes and sizes. The actual win percentages needed to be successful long term may be slightly different based upon the particular game that you are playing, but these should give you a good idea of what you should be aiming for.