Strategy

Why Running Backs Win Weeks

3 min read

Two running backs cost the same $6,200 in this made up example. Back A is his team's clear lead. He gets around 20 carries a game, handles the work near the goal line, and catches four or five passes. Back B shares the job. He gets about 12 carries, sits on passing downs, and watches a bigger teammate take the short touchdowns.

On paper they might have similar yards per carry. In daily fantasy they are not close. Back A is a lineup anchor. Back B is a hope.

Workload is the whole story

Fantasy points come from opportunities. A running back cannot score on a play where he is standing on the sideline. That is why experienced players care more about touches than about talent rankings.

Here is how the two backs might project under typical full point PPR scoring, where a yard is worth 0.1 points, a catch is worth 1, and a touchdown is worth 6. Check your site's scoring table to confirm the details.

Projection (example) Back A Back B
Rushing 20 carries, 85 yards 12 carries, 55 yards
Receiving 4 catches, 30 yards 2 catches, 15 yards
Expected touchdowns 0.6 0.25
Fantasy points about 19 about 10.5

Same salary, nearly twice the projection. Workload is the first thing to check every week, before matchups and before recent box scores.

The goal line role

Touchdowns are the single biggest scoring play for a running back, and most rushing touchdowns start very close to the end zone. The back who gets carries inside the 5 yard line has a huge edge, even if he is not the most talented runner on the team.

Watch for teams that bring in a bigger back for short yardage. That player can steal touchdowns from the lead back, which caps the lead back's ceiling even when his yardage looks fine. Snap counts and red zone carries from recent games tell you who really owns this role.

The passing down role

Catches add steady points, and they matter even more on DraftKings, where full point PPR scoring pays a full point for every reception. FanDuel uses half point PPR, so catches still help but carry less weight.

The passing down role also protects a back from a bad game script. When a team falls behind, it throws more and runs less. A back who only carries the ball loses work in that situation. A back who also catches passes keeps scoring. The best fantasy backs play on all three downs, so they get the carries when their team leads and the targets when it trails.

Why lead backs anchor cash lineups

Cash games, like double ups and head to heads, reward floors. You need to beat about half the field, not the top 1 percent. Few positions offer a floor like a lead back with a three down role. Receivers depend on how often the quarterback looks their way. Quarterbacks depend on the game plan. A running back with 20 or more touches is about as close to a sure thing as football gets.

That is why many cash lineups start with one or two of these backs and fill in around them. If the price is high, this is often the right place to spend, sometimes by saving at quarterback.

In cash games, buy the workload first. Talent without touches rarely pays the bills.

When to look elsewhere

Lead backs are not automatic. A few situations call for a second look.

  • Committee backfields split the work in ways that make projections shaky.
  • Lopsided matchups can hurt a back who rarely catches passes if his team falls far behind early.
  • Tournament ownership can climb very high on a cheap lead back. That is fine in cash games, but in big tournaments you may want a different path, as Playing Against the Chalk explains.

For more on how backs fit into a full roster, see Winning at Daily Fantasy Football and Every Contest Type Explained. The glossary covers terms like game script, touches, and floor.

Keep it a game. Set a budget before the slate locks and stick to it. Free, confidential help is available any time at 1-800-GAMBLER. How to play responsibly