Learn How You Can Win Your Next Match
Sunday, 17 December 2017
Home / Football Picks / Over the Hump in DFS
Making Big Games

Over the Hump in DFS

no Comments

We are nearing the end of the regular NFL season, and that means that we have a lot of information for making decisions for our daily fantasy football rosters. The information that we have access to is the same info that all other fantasy managers also have access to, as well. However, by looking at DFS specific stats, such as value and opposing point allowed, we can piece together a stronger team than the majority of other managers. Our hope is that this brief analysis will help you to put together a winning team and start dominating your daily fantasy football league.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara: This weekend, Alvin Kamara is the most expensive RB with a salary of $8,400. This is a big surprise for a lot of fantasy managers, but that shouldn’t be a reason to not consider him. He has averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game this season, has 9 TDs, and a total of 546 yards this season. That’s an average of less than 50 yards per game, which is not a lot for an RB. That will deter a lot of people as well because this is an indication that he is not being used much by his quarterback. While this is true on a surface level, the 9 touchdowns shows that he is being used mostly in situations where a TD is likely. That’s good news. The downside is that he’s expensive. His cost of $409 per fantasy point is pretty high. Now, take into account the fact that the New Orleans Saints take on the number 2 ranked Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and Kamara is in a place where he’s likely to disappoint those who draft him. He may be of more utility in the next few weeks, but not this weekend.

Todd Gurley: Gurley is the number two ranked RB this weekend with a price tag of $8,200. His average fantasy point total of 22.9 puts him at a slightly higher return than Kamara, and at a lower price. This is the first indicator that he’s a strong choice. The next is his value. We would expect him to have a cheaper dollar per point number, and he does at $358. But the real selling point for Gurley is the fact that the Rams go up against the Arizona Cardinals, who are ranked #21 against the rush. Gurley is in a place where he’s expected to perform at a higher than average level. For those that draft him, that means you are automatically getting a discount on him.

RB Start: Gurley

RB Sit: Kamara

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones: Julio Jones is ranked #1 in the NFL at the WR slot this weekend. He has a price tag of $8,600 and is averaging 18.0 points per game. That’s a cost of $477 for every point. This is extremely expensive, and in most cases, that would be an automatic disqualifier for drafting him. However, Jones is in a position where he’s going to outperform those that are around him. The Falcons play the #15 ranked Minnesota Vikings, and Jones is not likely to deviate too far from the averages he’s posted all year. That makes him a solid and stable choice here at Fanduel.

Keenan Allen: Allen is the #2 ranked WR slated to play on Sunday with a salary of $8,300. His average fantasy point total per game of 17.9 gives him a dollar per point cost of $463, which is pretty high. Allen has scored 4 TDs this season, and he’s seen an increase in targets and receptions over the last couple games, which could be an indicator that he’s going to be used a lot more heavily in the latter portion of the season, but this is only speculation, especially considering that there’s a chance his last game of 172 yards was a fluke. With the Cleveland Browns have the #3 ranked defense against the pass, Allen will likely be a lot lower than this expectation, which should steer the smart fantasy manager away from him.

WR Start: Jones

WR Sit: Allen

0 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked